Military Escalation Across the GCC and Implications for Corporate Risk Management

— Latest Developments in Military Conflict in Gulf States and How Global Companies Should Respond —

Latest Developments and Actions for Global Companies issued on March 2, 2026

Executive Summary

■ KEY FACTS

■ BUSINESS IMPACT

■ ACTION REQUIRED

1.   Confirm safety of Expatriate Workforce/travelers in GCC; make repatriation decisions
2.   Review BCP activation criteria; prepare remote work transition
3.   Assess supply chains via GCC; secure alternative routes
4.   Contact local partners/customers to confirm status
5.   Verify insurance coverage (war exclusions, terrorism riders)

The situation is fluid; further escalation cannot be ruled out.

1. Situation Overview

On February 28, 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rapidly escalated following large-scale U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran (Operation: Roaring Lion / Epic Fury). Iran launched retaliatory attacks the same day, conducting hundreds of missile and drone attacks against UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. While most threats were intercepted, civilian infrastructure including airports and hotels sustained damage.

■ Interception and Damage Summary

※Provisional figures based on official announcements from each country (as of March 2, 2026). Subject to revision.

■ Primary Target Facilities

※ Based on CNN, Al Jazeera, and announcements from various defense ministries. The IRGC claims to have targeted 14 U.S. military facilities.

2. Timeline of Escalation (GST/UTC+4)

※ GST (Gulf Standard Time) = UTC+4. Times converted from announcements by each news agency. Some times are approximate.

3. Strategic Analysis

■ Escalation Risk

Continued Iranian attacks could increase the likelihood of countermeasures by GCC states. Saudi Arabia has stated it would take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its security interests. Iranian state media reported the death of the Supreme Leader; a 40-day national mourning period was declared.

■ Maritime & Energy

Iran signaled potential restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway accounting for approximately 20% of global oil exports. Tanker attacks confirmed off Oman. Maritime insurance premiums are expected to increase in response to heightened risk perception.

■ Aviation & Tourism

Limited infrastructure damage was reported at certain airport facilities in Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait. Etihad, Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways suspended selected Middle East flights.

■ Diplomatic Stalemate and Future Outlook

As of early March 2026, no high-level negotiations to ease tensions between GCC member states and Iran have been confirmed. Countries appear to be pursuing a dual strategy of strengthening deterrence while maintaining diplomatic pressure, making the prospect of resuming dialogue in the short term unclear. Calls for de-escalation through the United Nations continue, but no effective mediation mechanism has been established.

■ Local Operations Status: UAE (Dubai)

We are providing information confirmed through our local network regarding the living and working conditions on the ground as of March 2, 2026. Please use this information to ensure the safety of our expatriate staff and to make decisions regarding the continuation of local operations.

※ The above information is current as of March 2. The situation remains fluid; please refer to official announcements for the latest updates.

■ Practical Advice for Expatriates and Local Offices

Practical Advice for Expatriates and Local Offices

▸Establish a Safety Confirmation System

Review and consider methods for confirming employee safety and communication channels.

▸ Develop Response Measures Based on Threat Levels

Formulate and review response measures based on threat levels from sources such as the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the U.S. State Department.

▸ Avoid Overreaction; Prioritize Advance Preparation

ReStrike a balance between avoiding excessive response and ensuring advance preparation.

▸ Flight Changes/Cancellations

Phone lines are busy. For agency bookings, contact your travel agency.

▸ Stockpiling Daily Necessities

Water, food, and medicine are sufficiently available, but stockpiling several days’ worth is recommended as a precaution.

▸ Financial Services

Local banks and ATMs are operating normally. However, some branches may have reduced hours, so we recommend checking in advance.

▸ Coordination with Embassies/Consulates

Ensure all expatriate staff are aware of the emergency contact information for the U.S. and U.K. embassies/consulates and establish a regular safety confirmation system.

4. Recommendations for Global Companies

・Immediate Review of Business Continuity Plans

Immediately review the activation criteria, communication protocols, and evacuation procedures for the crisis response plan, and strengthen the transition framework for remote operations. It is imperative to assess the physical dependency on local sites and establish alternative operational frameworks.

・Expatriate and employees Safety

Prioritize confirming the safety of expatriates, business travelers, and employees in the GCC region. Implement remote work based on the level of danger information and clarify criteria for decisions regarding repatriation and evacuation. It is crucial to ensure all personnel are aware of embassy and consulate contact information and emergency evacuation routes.

Furthermore, as a global company, it is necessary to similarly confirm the safety of locally hired employees.

・Real-time Monitoring

Establish a monitoring system utilizing official sources (national defense ministries, news agencies) and open-source intelligence (OSINT) to enhance the responsiveness of decision-making.

・Supply Chain Assessment

Scrutinize logistics routes, suppliers, and inventory placement through the GCC region. Secure alternative routes and implement countermeasures for extended lead times. A dual-track strategy accounting for the risk of Strait of Hormuz closure is critical.

・DX/ERP for Crisis Response

To share information in real time and enable rapid decision-making across geographically dispersed locations, implementing and enhancing an integrated ERP system is essential. Centralized management of inventory, procurement, and financial data enables immediate scenario analysis and contingency planning during crises. Furthermore, deploying cloud-based collaboration tools and BI dashboards strengthens coordination between headquarters and local sites, ensuring business continuity in emergencies.

・Insurance Review

Review coverage for war exclusions, terrorism riders, and business interruption insurance, and consider additional coverage as needed. For marine transportation, budgetary measures are also necessary to prepare for increases in war risk insurance premiums.

・Stakeholder Communication

Proactively disclose your risk management status to customers, partners, and investors to maintain trust. Sectors particularly sensitive to geopolitical risks—such as energy, aviation, and finance—require highly transparent communication.

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※This report is an analysis based on publicly available information and does not constitute a recommendation for specific investment decisions or business decisions. We cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information provided. We recommend consulting with experts when considering specific countermeasures.

情報ソース：Information sources: Al Jazeera, CNN, France24, Bloomberg, announcements from various countries’ defense ministries, etc. (as of March 2, 2026)

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