Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Implications for Corporate Risk Management

Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Implications for Corporate Risk Management. Learn the latest information.

— Latest Developments in Military Conflicts in the Gulf States and Actions Global Companies Should Take —

Issued based on information as of 2026, February 9 at 9:30 | Detailed Analysis

Executive Summary

KEY FACTS | What Happened

BUSINESS IMPACT | Impact on Your Company

ACTION REQUIRED | Five Items to Verify Immediately

• Verify status and determine return/evacuation for GCC expatriates (including accompanying families) and business travelers

• Verify BCP activation conditions and transition to remote work setup

• Inspect GCC supply chains and secure alternative routes

• Verify situation status with local counterparties and customers

• Verify insurance and risk transfer coverage (war exclusion clauses, etc.)

The current situation is fluid, and the possibility of additional escalation cannot be ruled out.

1. Overview of the Situation: Military Attacks on GCC Countries

On February 28, 2026, triggered by large-scale airstrikes by the United States and Israel on Iran (Operation Name: Roaring Lion / Epic Fury), geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated rapidly. Iran launched retaliatory attacks the same day, conducting hundreds of missiles and drone strikes against UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. While most threats were intercepted by each country’s air defense systems, civilian infrastructure including airports and hotels sustained damage.

Overview of Interceptions and Damage

Note: Figures are provisional based on announcements from each country’s defense ministry and official statements (as of March 1, 2026). These may be revised in the future.

Main Attack Targets

Based on integrated reports from CNN, Al Jazeera, and each country’s defense ministry. IRGC claimed to have targeted 14 US military facilities.

2. Escalation Timeline (GST / UTC+4 Standard)

The current situation is fluid, and risks of further deterioration cannot be denied.

Note: GST (Gulf Standard Time) = UTC+4. Broadcast times from each news agency have been converted. Some are approximations.

3. Strategic Analysis: Future Scenarios

Escalation Risk

If Iranian attacks continue, GCC countries centered on UAE and Saudi Arabia may shift to counterattacks to maintain deterrence balance. Some government statements suggest the possibility of enhanced deterrence, but no specific military action decisions have been officially confirmed.

Early on March 2, rocket attacks from Hezbollah on Israel were reported, and the Israeli government issued a statement positioning the attack as equivalent to an “act of war.”

Maritime Traffic and Energy Supply

Iran has announced closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Blockade of this route, through which approximately 20% of world oil exports pass, could have devastating impacts on energy prices and the global economy. Tanker attacks near Oman have also been confirmed, raising concerns about surging maritime insurance rates and increased logistics costs.

Aviation and Tourism Sectors

Dubai International Airport (world’s largest by international passenger numbers), Doha, and Kuwait airports sustained damage. Etihad Airways announced operational suspension until March 2, and Qatar Airways announced temporary suspension. Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways and others have also suspended Middle East flights, severely impacting business travel and logistics.

Diplomatic Stalemate and Outlook

As of early 2026, high-level negotiations for tension relief between GCC members and Iran have not been confirmed. Each country has adopted a combined strategy of strengthening deterrence and applying diplomatic pressure. Near-term dialogue resumption prospects remain unclear. Calls for tension relief through the UN continue, but effective mediation mechanisms have not been established.

Local Operations Status: UAE (Dubai)

Regarding the living and work environment as of February 2, 2026, we share information confirmed through our local networks. Use this for expatriate safety assurance and current operations continuity decisions.

Note: The above is information as of March 2. The situation is fluid; please check latest official announcements.

Practical Advice for Expatriates and Local Bases

• Safety Verification and Emergency Contact Establishment — Secure multiple communication channels and establish systems including local staff

• Risk Response Strategy Development Based on Danger Information — Response aligned with information levels from Foreign Ministry and US State Department

• Avoid Overreaction, Emphasize Advance Preparation — Balance and calm judgment

• Airline Ticket Modification and Cancellation Response — Online priority, travel agent coordination

• Essential Supplies Stockpiling — Several days recommended

• Financial Services Verification — ATM operations, some limited hours

• Coordination with Embassies and Consulates — Emergency contact dissemination, safety confirmation systems

4. Recommendations for Japanese Enterprises

Immediate Business Continuity Plan (BCP) Review

Revise crisis response plan activation conditions, communication systems, and evacuation procedures immediately. Strengthen remote operations transition systems. Particularly evaluate physical dependency of local bases and build alternative operations systems at satellite offices, which is urgent. The following points should also be incorporated into BCP plans and internal regulations as policy and guidelines when possible.

Safety Assurance for Expatriates, Accompanying Family Members, Business Travelers, and Employees

Prioritize safety confirmation for GCC region expatriates and business travelers. Implement remote work according to danger information levels and clarify return/evacuation decision criteria. Inform all personnel of each country embassy and consulate contact information and emergency evacuation routes. It is important to ensure that local hired employees also receive equivalent safety confirmation as a global enterprise.

Real-time Information Monitoring System Establishment

Establish monitoring systems using official information sources (each country’s defense ministry, news agencies) and Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), increasing decision-making responsiveness.

Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment

Examine logistics routes through GCC regions, procurement sources, and inventory placement. Secure alternative routes and implement measures for extended lead times. Multiplexed strategy considering Strait of Hormuz closure risk is important.

DX/ERP-Enabled Crisis Response Capability Enhancement

For real-time information sharing among geographically dispersed bases and swift decision-making, integrated ERP system implementation and advancement is essential. Unified management of inventory, procurement, and financial data enables scenario analysis and immediate contingency planning during crises. Furthermore, cloud-based collaboration tools and BI dashboard deployment strengthen headquarters and local operations coordination, ensuring business continuity during emergencies.

Insurance and Risk Transfer Review

Confirm coverage of war exclusion clauses, terrorism special clauses, and business interruption insurance. Consider additional coverage as needed. For maritime transport, budget measures for rising war risk insurance premiums are also necessary.

Stakeholder Communication

Actively disclose risk response status to customers, partners, and investors, maintaining trust. Particularly in geopolitical risk-sensitive sectors (energy, aviation, finance), highly transparent information communication is required.

5. Biz Easy’s Global Risk Management Support

Support Track Record

Our Strengths

Geopolitical Risk Expert Knowledge

Extensive results in geopolitical risk analysis and corporate impact assessment, primarily in the Middle East and Africa. Quickly identify situation changes and provide advisory guidance practical application. Particularly through support for major Japanese enterprises in the Middle East, we have rich firsthand knowledge of how companies can operate business while mitigating risks in the Middle East region.

Global Network

With local partners in major countries, we provide real-time local information acquisition and support knowledgeable about regulations and business customs of each country.

One-Stop Solution

From risk assessment to BCP development, internal control structure building, DX/ERP implementation, and crisis management training, we comprehensively support corporate risk management.

Direct Advisory to Management

We have established systems supporting management decision-making through briefings to boards of directors and management meetings, scenario analysis, and decision support.

Support Cases

We also support numerous other ERP system implementations and business process improvement initiatives.

Strengthen Your Company’s Global Risk Management and Internal Control System

We comprehensively support Japanese enterprise risk management from geopolitical risk analysis to internal control system building and review, business continuity plan development and review, and DX/ERP implementation support.

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Supported Areas:

Geopolitical Risk Analysis | BCP Development and Training | Internal Control Building, Audit, and Review | Group Governance | DX/ERP Implementation | Crisis Management Training | Employee Handbook Creation | HR Organization Assessment | Evaluation System Development and Review

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Note: This report is based on analysis of public information and does not recommend specific investment judgment or business decision-making. We cannot assume responsibility for the accuracy of stated information. We recommend consulting with specialists when considering specific response measures.

Information Sources: Al Jazeera, CNN, France24, Bloomberg, each country’s defense ministry announcements, etc. (as of February 2026)

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